The View from Washington

If Hamas, according to Washington, does not understand that it is finished, it will pay the price heavily, along with the rest of the Gazans.

6 April 2026

About 26 weeks ago the Gaza war officially ended with the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas on October 10, 2025. Ten weeks ago, Ran Gvili, the last remaining (deceased) Israeli hostage was retrieved from Gaza ending the 842-day saga starting on October 7, 2023. About five and half weeks ago, on February 28, Israel and the United States launched their attack on Iran and the Middle East is a very different region than it was before.

Before February 28 it might have been possible to say “all eyes on are Gaza”, that is no longer true because now all eyes are on Iran. After President Trump imposed the end of the Gaza war on Netanyahu, and after the Arab Gulf states ensured that Trump’s 20-point peace plan included a path to Palestinian statehood, some of us (me) believed that perhaps it would be possible to enlist Trump’s support in seriously advancing the two states solution and putting an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Of course it was quite clear that this could not be done while Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel. But (hopefully) the Israeli elections are coming and there is some reason to hope that even that reality could change.

Sometime after the end of the Gaza war and the beginning of the Iran war, from what I heard, the Trump team was willing to continue to talk with the same Hamas leaders who agreed to end the war in order to develop an agreed plan for the takeover of Gaza by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the deployment of a new Gaza Palestinian police force, the deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) and the disarmament of Hamas. However, since the end of the war in Gaza about 700 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza by Israeli forces including 117 women and children who were among the 60%-plus of those killed who were not combatants. Despite repeated reporting to the Trump team by the mediators (Egypt, Qatar, and Turkiye) on mainly Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement and much fewer by Hamas, little has been done to put an end to the violations. This in itself raises questions on the willingness of Washington to continue to apply pressure on Netanyahu.

The Board of Peace was launched with great fanfare in Davos at the World Economic Forum. The NCAG members were appointed and Nikolay Mlandenov was assigned by the Board of Peace to oversee the whole process of ending Hamas’s rule in Gaza. A lot of work has been done, but 26 weeks after the end of the war, Israel controls more than 53% of Gaza and Hamas has reasserted its unwanted rule over more than 2 million Gazans living in horrid conditions on less than 47% of the narrow coastal enclave. The Hamas leadership outside of Gaza continues to issue bombastic statements and declarations as if someone in the world really cares about what they say. From the point of view of Washington, Hamas surrendered on October 10, 2025 and when the last hostage was brought back to Israel, Hamas lost any leverage that it previously had. As the weeks passed by and the Israeli agreed occupation of 53% of Gaza became more entrenched, the positions of the United States and Netanyahu moved closer together. Israel refused to allow international organizations to deliver aid to Gaza which have been widely replaced by private sector concerns, sending primarily Israeli goods into Gaza with full US agreement. Israel’s demand to vet all Gazan employees of the international organizations seems more than reasonable to Washington and completely opposed to by the international organizations.

Israel has demanded that no reconstruction take place in Gaza without full demilitarization of Hamas. Hamas has agreed to transfer all governing power, including the police force to NCAG, but Hamas has rejected turning over its weapons. Hamas has agreed to turn over all unexploded ordinances in Gaza to NCAG and the Palestinian police, but Hamas explicitly declares that the “resistance” will not end until the occupation ends. This position is completely rejected by Washington.

Hamas in Gaza which has elected a new leadership unknown to the Israeli public, have tried to differentiate between an initial period of “recovery” from the period of reconstruction. This is specifically aimed at enabling the transfer of governance to NCAG while remaining an armed force, out of site, but very much still in control. Hamas in Gaza sees the process as follows: The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza is a civilian governing body responsible for services, administration, and public order. NCAG is not responsible for disarmament. Hamas objects the linking of humanitarian relief to its weapons. Hamas is also opposed to linking Israeli redeployment to disarmament. Amazingly, Hamas believes that someone is actually interested in negotiating with it. My assessment is that the United States and at least Egypt and Qatar have lost their patience with Hamas and have essentially adopted the position of Washington that Hamas must be totally disarmed. This position has even strengthened since the beginning of the war in Iran.

From my talks with officials in the Trump Administration, they do sincerely care about the people of Gaza but they explicitly believe that the people of Gaza must rise against Hamas and force Hamas to disarm. The Trump Administration people say: we cannot care more about the Palestinians in Gaza then they care about themselves. If they want reconstruction and they want to live a decent respectful life, Hamas must be disarmed completely – it is not negotiable. From the point of view of Washington, there is no room left for the so-called resistance (the label that Hamas gives to itself). If Hamas, according to Washington, does not understand that they are finished, then they will pay the price heavily along with the rest of the Gazans who no longer want Hamas to rule over them.

What I understand from what I hear is that there is a time limit on the American patience regarding Hamas disarming. My assumption is that the end of patience will coincide, more or less, with the end of the war in Iran and against Hezbollah. Sometime after that, Netanyahu will request a green light from Trump to send the Israeli army into the Hamas controlled part of Gaza and “finish the job”. Disarming Hamas will be then in the hands of Israel and it will not be an easy task free from Israeli casualties and countless number of lives of Gazans.

After the enormous price that the wealthy Arab countries have paid in the war against Iran, Gaza and Palestine are no longer in focus as they were prior to the war. The war, at least as understood by Washington, has brought the Arab Gulf countries more in line with Trump’s viewpoint than as seeing Palestine as the center of conflicts in the Middle East. With all of the financial damage that has been done during the Iran war, less money will also be available for Gaza’s reconstruction.

Washington and all Israelis, Palestinians, and others who care about Israel or about Palestine, there is only one solution to this conflict and it remains the two states solution. They also have to remember that Israel will never have security if the Palestinians don’t have freedom and Palestine will never be free if Israel doesn’t have security. That is the eternal bottom line - whether seen in Washington or not, it remains the ultimate truth and will not change at any time in the foreseeable future.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-892334